Modelling epidemic spread in cities using public transportation as a proxy for generalized mobility trends.

ABSTRACT

We study how public transportation data can inform the modeling of the spread of infectious diseases based on SIR dynamics. We present a model where public transportation data is used as an indicator of broader mobility patterns within a city, including the use of private transportation, walking etc. The mobility parameter derived from this data is used to model the infection rate. As a test case, we study the impact of the usage of the New York City subway on the spread of COVID-19 within the city during 2020. We show that utilizing subway transport data as an indicator of the general mobility trends within the city, and therefore as an indicator of the effective infection rate, improves the quality of forecasting COVID-19 spread in New York City. Our model predicts the two peaks in the spread of COVID-19 cases in NYC in 2020, unlike a standard SIR model that misses the second peak entirely.