Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Epidemics
; 39: 100567, 2022 06.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1796867
ABSTRACT
Different COVID-19 treatment candidates are under development, and some are becoming available including two promising drugs from Merck and Pfizer. This study provides conceptual frameworks for the effects of three types of treatments, both therapeutic and prophylactic, and to investigate their population-level impact, to inform drug development, licensure, decision-making, and implementation. Different drug efficacies were assessed using an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression, with application to the United States as an illustrative example. Severe and critical infection treatment reduces progression to COVID-19 severe and critical disease and death with small number of treatments needed to avert one disease or death. Post-exposure prophylaxis treatment had a large impact on flattening the epidemic curve, with large reductions in infection, disease, and death, but the impact was strongly age dependent. Pre-exposure prophylaxis treatment had the best impact and effectiveness, with immense reductions in infection, disease, and death, driven by the robust control of infection transmission. Effectiveness of both pre-exposure and post-exposure prophylaxis treatments was disproportionally larger when a larger segment of the population was targeted than a specific age group. Additional downstream potential effects of treatment, beyond the primary outcome, enhance the population-level impact of both treatments. COVID-19 treatments are an important modality in controlling SARS-CoV-2 disease burden. Different types of treatment act synergistically for a larger impact, for these treatments and vaccination.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis
/
COVID-19
/
COVID-19 Drug Treatment
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Epidemics
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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