Research on Early Warning and Forecasting System of Public Health Emergencies Based on Complex Network

ABSTRACT

It is an important research field related to the national economy and the people's livelihood to establish and improve the crisis early warning management of public health emergencies and improve the timeliness and accuracy of prediction and early warning. The outbreak and spread of infectious diseases is a typical complex system composed of etiology, host, and environment. From the perspective of complex network, this paper combines infectious disease dynamics with biostatistics and simulation, analyze the transmission characteristics and process of infectious diseases on complex networks, and simulate the implementation effect of various prevention and control measures. It seeks the optimal strategy for its prevention and control, so as to provide decision-making basis for the study of infectious disease emergencies. And it simulates the evolution process of social contact network driven by people's daily behavior. The results show that the transmission speed of infectious diseases in home networks is significantly lower than that in public networks. Through simulation analysis and effect evaluation, good results have been achieved, which can provide accurate and rapid decision-making for emergency managers. It proves the feasibility of the model. This study provides a new research perspective for infectious disease prevention and control.