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Reduction in the infection fatality rate of Omicron variant compared with previous variants in South Africa.
Liu, Yuan; Yu, Yangyang; Zhao, Yanji; He, Daihai.
  • Liu Y; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.
  • Yu Y; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China; State Key Laboratory for Strength and Vibration of Mechanical Structures, School of Aerospace Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China.
  • Zhao Y; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China.
  • He D; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China; Research Institute for Future Food, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR, China. Electronic address: daihai.he@gmail.com.
Int J Infect Dis ; 120: 146-149, 2022 Jul.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1799912
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE:

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant has caused global concern. Previous studies have shown that the variant has enhanced immune evasion ability and transmissibility and reduced severity.

METHODS:

In this study, we developed a mathematical model with time-varying transmission rate, vaccination, and immune evasion. We fit the model to reported case and death data up to February 6, 2022 to estimate the transmissibility and infection fatality ratio of the Omicron variant in South Africa.

RESULTS:

We found that the high relative transmissibility of the Omicron variant was mainly due to its immune evasion ability, whereas its infection fatality rate substantially decreased by approximately 78.7% (95% confidence interval 66.9%, 85.0%) with respect to previous variants.

CONCLUSION:

On the basis of data from South Africa and mathematical modeling, we found that the Omicron variant is highly transmissible but with significantly lower infection fatality rates than those of previous variants of SARS-CoV-2.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.ijid.2022.04.029

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa Language: English Journal: Int J Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.ijid.2022.04.029