Early estimation of the epidemiological parameters of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) outbreak in Iran: 19 Feb-15 March, 2020.

ABSTRACT

AIM: To estimate the epidemiological parameters related to the Covid-19 outbreak in Iran. BACKGROUND: Estimating the epidemiological parameters of new public health threat (COVID-19) is essential to support and inform public health decision-making in different communities including Iran. METHODS: We established a mathematical model to estimate the epidemiological parameters from 19 Feb to 15 March based on daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Iran. Then, we estimated the effect of early traffic restriction on our estimation. RESULTS: We estimated the R0 at 2.11 (95% CI, 1.87-2.50) and the infected number at 92,260 (95% CI 59,263 -152,212) by 15 March. Our estimate for the ascertainment rate was about 1.2% (95% CI 1.1-1.4). The latent period estimation was 4.24 (95% CI 2.84-6.65). We observed a decline in our estimate after considering the traffic restriction. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that health authorities in Iran must take impactful strategies to control the COVID-19 outbreak to reach R0<1. Therefore, the establishment of complementary, multilateral, and cost-effective measures for the treatment of symptomatic and early diagnosis and isolation of asymptomatic cases/contacts are strongly recommended because of low ascertainment rate and large number of infected cases. We additionally recommend that traffic restriction be combined with other controlling measures.