Bifurcation Analysis for COVID-19 Model With Inhibitory Effect

ABSTRACT

Different stages of unlocking have begun for COVID-19 pandemic in some parts of the world. Therefore, it becomes important to focus on inhibitory or psychological effects that help in controlling the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in the society. Considering this, we formulate a SEIQHR mathematical model representing COVID-19 scenario with an incidence function of two infectious classes, namely symptomatic and asymptomatic with the inhibitory effect. The model is said to exhibit two equilibria, namely diseasefree equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE). Basic reproduction number is computed for the model. The local stability analysis is carried out for both the equilibria using Routh-Hurwitz criterion. The result shows stability of DFE when R0 < 1 and persistence of COVID-19 when R0 > 1. Sensitivity analysis of R0 is also studied to understand the effect of various parameters used in modeling the spread of COVID-19. At the end, numerical results have been studied for the formulated model, showing existence of various bifurcations. The largest Lyapunov exponent is also calculated, indicating complexity of the model with low inhibitory rates. © 2021 River Publishers.