Defining the peak: Point prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 using randomised sampling.

ABSTRACT

Since Queensland eased border restrictions to the rest of Australia on 13 December 2021, notified cases of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) dramatically increased, with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant now the most widespread variant of concern 145,881 cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Queensland in the month following the opening of the border. For an effective public health response to a highly transmissible disease, it is important to know the prevalence in the community, but the exponential increase in cases meant that many with symptoms had difficulty getting tested. We implemented a surveillance program on the Gold Coast that used a modified randomised household cluster survey method to estimate the point prevalence of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The estimated point prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 detected by PCR on self-collected swabs was 17.2% on the first visit to households (22 January 2022). This subsequently decreased to 5.2% (5 February 2022) and finally to 1.1% (19 February 2022). Out of 1,379 specimens tested over five weeks, 63 had detected SARS-CoV-2 and 35 (55.6%) were sequenced. All were SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.529 (i.e. Omicron). This surveillance program could be scaled up or reproduced in other jurisdictions to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community.Since Queensland eased border restrictions to the rest of Australia on 13 December 2021, notified cases of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) dramatically increased, with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant now the most widespread variant of concern 145,881 cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Queensland in the month following the opening of the border. For an effective public health response to a highly transmissible disease, it is important to know the prevalence in the community, but the exponential increase in cases meant that many with symptoms had difficulty getting tested. We implemented a surveillance program on the Gold Coast that used a modified randomised household cluster survey method to estimate the point prevalence of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). The estimated point prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 detected by PCR on self-collected swabs was 17.2% on the first visit to households (22 January 2022). This subsequently decreased to 5.2% (5 February 2022) and finally to 1.1% (19 February 2022). Out of 1,379 specimens tested over five weeks, 63 had detected SARS-CoV-2 and 35 (55.6%) were sequenced. All were SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.529 (i.e. Omicron). This surveillance program could be scaled up or reproduced in other jurisdictions to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community.