Clinical and demographic characteristics associated with shorter time to COVID-19 death

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Cancer patients have been considered a high-risk population in the COVID-19 pandemic. We previously investigated risk of COVID-19 death in COVID-19 positive cancer patients during a median follow-up of 134 days, and identified the following risk factors male sex, age >60 years, Asian ethnicity, hematological cancer type, cancer diagnosis for >2.5 years, patients presenting with fever or dyspnea, and high levels of ferritin and C-reactive protein (CRP). Here, we further investigate which factors are associated with a COVID-19 related death within 7 days of diagnosis. Methods: Using data from Guy's Cancer Centre and one of its partner trusts (King's College Hospital), we included 306 cancer patients with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis (February 29th-July 31st 2020). 72 patients had a COVID-19 related death (24%) of whom 35 died within 7 days (50%). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify which factors were associated with a COVID-19 related death <7 days of diagnosis. Results: Of the 72 cancer patients who had a COVID-19 related death, the mean age was 72 years (Standard Deviation (SD) 14). A total of 53 (74%) patients were men. 37 (52%) had a hematological cancer type, 47 (65%) had stage IV cancer, and 42 (58%) had been diagnosed with cancer more than 24 months before COVID-19 related death. In the group of patients who died within 7 days of diagnosis (n= 35), mean age was 73 years (SD 13.96), 24 (68%) were men, 20 (57%) had a hematological cancer type, 26 (74%) had stage IV cancer, and 24 (68%) had been diagnosed with cancer >24 months before COVID-19 diagnosis. Factors associated with COVID-19 related death <7 days of diagnosis were hematological cancer (Hazard Ratio (HR) 2.74 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.21-6.22)), 2-5 yrs since cancer diagnosis (HR 4.81 (95%CI 1.47-15.69)), and >5 yrs since cancer diagnosis (HR 4.41 (95%CI 1.38-14.06)). Additionally, patients who presented with dyspnea had increased risk of COVID-19 related death <7 days compared to asymptomatic patients (HR 5.25 (95%CI 2.14-12.89)). CRP levels in the third tercile (146-528 mg/L) as compared to the first were also associated with increased risk of an early death due to COVID-19. Conclusion: From all the factors identified in our previous COVID-19 related death analysis, only hematological cancer type, a longer-established cancer diagnosis (2-5 years and more than 5 years), dyspnea at time of diagnosis and high levels of CRP were indicative of an early COVID-19 related death (within 7 days of diagnosis) in cancer patients.