Dynamics of novel COVID-19 in the presence of Co-morbidity.
Infect Dis Model
; 7(2): 138-160, 2022 Jun.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1819502
ABSTRACT
A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has emerged as a global serious public health issue from December 2019. People having a weak immune system are more susceptible to coronavirus infection. It is a double challenge for people of any age with certain underlying medical conditions including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, high blood pressure and cancer etc. Co-morbidity increases the probability of COVID-19 complication. In this paper a deterministic compartmental model is formulated to understand the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Rigorous mathematical analysis of the model shows that it exhibits backward bifurcation phenomenon when the basic reproduction number is less than unity. For the case of no re-infection it is shown that having the reproduction number less than one is necessary and sufficient for the effective control of COVID-19, that is, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the reproduction threshold is less than unity. Furthermore, in the absence of reinfection, a unique endemic equilibrium of the model exists which is globally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number is greater than unity. Numerical simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics, show that the use of efficacious face masks publicly could lead to the elimination of COVID-19 up to a satisfactory level. The study also shows that in the presence of co-morbidity, the disease increases significantly.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Observational study
Language:
English
Journal:
Infect Dis Model
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.idm.2022.04.005
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