2021 international livestock outlook

ABSTRACT

The last year was not only marked by the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, but also the most devastating animal disease to date, African swine fever (ASF). The former led to many disruptions in the global meat market, such as lockdowns, meat packing plant closures, supply shortages and both delays and bans in global shipments. The latter led to increased imports of pork by China and new export opportunities for some countries and bans for others as the disease continued to spread across South East Asia and Europe. These projections were prepared as part of FAPRI's 2021 outlook for agricultural markets, and are based on information available in January 2021. Projections for the U.S. crop and livestock sectors are summarized in FAPRI Report #01-21, and a companion report from colleagues at the University of Nevada, Reno summarizes the outlook for international grain and oilseed markets (both can be accessed at https//www.fapri.missouri.edu/publication/2021-us-agricultural-market-outlook/). The baseline assumes a continuation of government policies in place in January 2021, and a recovery in the global economy as forecast by IHS Markit. U.S. pork exports to China reached a record $2.1 billion in 2020 as China increased its imports from the U.S. and other exporters. China also increased its imports of U.S. soybeans and corn in 2020 to supply feed to help China's pork producers expand production again. In spite of the increased purchases, China's imports of U.S. agricultural products fell short of the 2020 commitments laid out in the "Phase One" trade agreement between the two countries. When these projections were initially prepared, the global markets were expected to start recovering from ASF in 2021. However, recent outbreaks in China suggest that it may be a few more years until sow and hog herds return to pre-2018 levels. Likewise, with access to widespread vaccinations worldwide taking longer than initially thought and with the spread of new variants, this may also lead to more volatility in global markets as countries try to return to more normalcy post-pandemic. As such, the level of uncertainty in global livestock product markets is greater than usual. These projections are intended to serve as a benchmark for what the world may look like in the next 10 years given a particular set of assumptions, and can serve as a point of reference for scenario analysis.