Export restrictions under the pandemic shock: implications for the competitiveness of wheat production in Russia

ABSTRACT

As a wheat exporter, Russia ranks first in the world. Almost half of domestic wheat production is exported due to its competitiveness characterized by the relatively high level of comparative advantage. According to the study in the context of export parity and significant export volumes, domestic wheat prices follow world market prices and largely depend on major importers' demand. Global wheat prices have been rising consistently over the past months caused by the recovery in Chinese economy, adverse weather conditions, disruptions in food value chains and liquidity injections in the USA and EU economies to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. To restrain the rise in domestic prices, Russian government decided to introduced a floating export duty on wheat. This mechanism in the context of high world grain prices, economic stagnation, shrinking disposable incomes and increased risks of further devaluation of the national currency would lead to deterioration of the financial and economic situation, reduction of investment opportunities and technological lagging of Russian wheat producers behind their competitors in the world market. In this respect, Russian government efforts should be focused on increasing production and improving the competitiveness of wheat instead of restricting exports. A comprehensive set of measures regulating the wheat market also implies subsidizing wheat consumers, support for the development of transport and logistics infrastructure, and targeted assistance to vulnerable groups of the population. Such approaches would support grain consumers while respecting the interests of producers and exporters, thereby helping to achieve the national agri-food export target of USD 45 billion in the coming ten years.