Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on prices of potato and onion in metropolitan cities of India. (Special Issue: COVID-19 in Agricultural and Development Economics.)

ABSTRACT

Purpose: This study focuses on accessing the impact of lockdown implemented to curb the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on prices of potato and onion crops using the time series analysis techniques. Design/methodology/approach: The present study uses secondary price series data for both crops. Along with the study of percent increase or decrease, the time series analysis techniques of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH), as well as machine learning;neural network autoregressive (NNAR) models were used to model the prices. For the purpose of comparison, the data from past years were taken as the period of normalcy. The behaviour of the forecasts for the normal periods and during the pandemic based on respective datasets was compared. Findings: The results show that there was an unprecedented rise in prices during the months of lockdown. It could be attributed to the decline in arrivals due to several reasons like issues with transportation and labour availability. Also, towards the end of lockdown (May 2020), the prices seemed to decrease. Such a drop could be attributed to the relaxations in lockdown and reduced demand. The study also discusses that how some unique approaches like e-marketing, localized resource development for attaining self-sufficiency and developing transport chain, especially, for agriculture could help in such a situation of emergency. Research limitations/implications A more extensive study could be conducted to mark the factors specifically that caused the increase in price. Originality/value The study clearly marks that the prices of the crops increased more than expectations using time series methods. Also, it surveys the prevailing situation through available resources to link up the reasons behind it.