Dynamics of a Stochastic Epidemic Model with Vaccination and Multiple Time-Delays for COVID-19 in the UAE

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we study the dynamics of COVID-19 in the UAE with an extended SEIR epidemic model with vaccination, time-delays, and random noise. The stationary ergodic distribution of positive solutions is examined, in which the solution fluctuates around the equilibrium of the deterministic case, causing the disease to persist stochastically. It is possible to attain infection-free status (extinction) in some situations, in which diseases die out exponentially and with a probability of one. The numerical simulations and fit to real observations prove the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Combining stochastic perturbations with time-delays enhances the dynamics of the model, and white noise intensity is an important part of the treatment of infectious diseases.