An Epidemic Spreading Simulation and Emergency Management Based on System Dynamics: A Case Study of China’s University Community

ABSTRACT

The spread of epidemics, especially COVID-19, is having a significant impact on the world. If an epidemic is not properly controlled at the beginning, it is likely to spread rapidly and widely through the coexistence relationship between natural and social systems. A university community is a special, micro-self-organized social system that is densely populated. However, university authorities in such an environment seem to be less cautious in the defence of an epidemic. Currently, there is almost no quantitative research on epidemic spreading and response strategies in universities. In this paper, a case study of a university community is considered for a simulation of an infection evolving after an epidemic outbreak based on the method of system dynamics of the three stages. The results show the following (1) By improving the speed of the initial emergency response, the total number of patients can be effectively controlled. (2) A quarantine policy helps to slow down the evolution of infection. The higher the isolation ratio, the higher the cost;therefore, the isolation ratio should be optimized. (3) It is important to make emergency plans for controlling epidemic spreading and carry out emergency drills and assessments regularly. According to the results of this study, we suggest an emergency management framework for public health events in university communities.