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[Course of disease and related epidemiological parameters of COVID-19: a prospective study based on contact tracing cohort].
Zhou, Y; Liang, W J; Chen, Z H; Liu, T; Song, T; Chen, S W; Wang, P; Li, J L; Lan, Y H; Cheng, M J; Huang, J X; Niu, J W; Xiao, J P; Hu, J X; Lin, L F; Huang, Q; Deng, A P; Tan, X H; Kang, M; Chen, G M; Dong, M R; Zhong, H J; Ma, Wenjun.
  • Zhou Y; School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Liang WJ; Institute of Immunization Programme, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Chen ZH; Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Liu T; Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Song T; Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Chen SW; Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Wang P; Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Li JL; Institute of Immunization Programme, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Lan YH; Institute of Immunization Programme, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Cheng MJ; Institute of Disinfection and Vector Control, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Huang JX; Institute of Environment and School Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Niu JW; Institute of Environment and School Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Xiao JP; Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Hu JX; Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Lin LF; Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Huang Q; Institute of Nutrition and Food Safety, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Deng AP; Institute of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Tan XH; Institute of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Kang M; Institute of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Chen GM; Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Dong MR; Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Zhong HJ; Public Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Division, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
  • Ma W; School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi ; 56(4): 474-478, 2022 Apr 06.
Article in Chinese | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1834947
ABSTRACT

Objective:

To analyze the course of disease and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and provide evidence for making prevention and control strategies.

Methods:

To display the distribution of course of disease of the infectors who had close contacts with COVID-19 cases from January 1 to March 15, 2020 in Guangdong Provincial, the models of Lognormal, Weibull and gamma distribution were applied. A descriptive analysis was conducted on the basic characteristics and epidemiological parameters of course of disease.

Results:

In total, 515 of 11 580 close contacts were infected, with an attack rate about 4.4%, including 449 confirmed cases and 66 asymptomatic cases. Lognormal distribution was fitting best for latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period of confirmed cases and infection period of asymptomatic cases; Gamma distribution was fitting best for infectious period and clinical symptom period of confirmed cases; Weibull distribution was fitting best for latent period of asymptomatic cases. The latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period, infectious period and clinical symptoms period of confirmed cases were 4.50 (95%CI3.86-5.13) days, 5.12 (95%CI4.63-5.62) days, 0.87 (95%CI0.67-1.07) days, 11.89 (95%CI9.81-13.98) days and 22.00 (95%CI21.24-22.77) days, respectively. The latent period and infectious period of asymptomatic cases were 8.88 (95%CI6.89-10.86) days and 6.18 (95%CI1.89-10.47) days, respectively.

Conclusion:

The estimated course of COVID-19 and related epidemiological parameters are similar to the existing data.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Contact Tracing / COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: Chinese Journal: Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Cma.j.cn112150-20220107-00025

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Contact Tracing / COVID-19 Type of study: Cohort study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Language: Chinese Journal: Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Cma.j.cn112150-20220107-00025