The susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model for long-term identification of key epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 in Indonesia
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering
; 12(3):2900-2910, 2022.
Article
in English
| ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-1835811
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 epidemic has spread massively to almost all countries including Indonesia, in just a few months. An important step to overcoming the spread of the COVID-19 is understanding its epidemiology through mathematical modeling intervention. Knowledge of epidemic dynamics patterns is an important part of making timely decisions and preparing hospitals for the outbreak peak. In this study, we developed the susceptible-infected-recovered-dead (SIRD) model, which incorporates the key epidemiological parameters to model and estimate the long-term spread of the COVID-19. The proposed model formulation is data-based analysis using public COVID-19 data from March 2, 2020 to May 15, 2021. Based on numerical analysis, the spread of the pandemic will begin to fade out after November 5, 2021. As a consequence of this virus attack, the cumulative number of infected, recovered, and dead people were estimated at ≈ 3,200,000, ≈ 3,437,000 and ≈ 63,000 people, respectively. Besides, the key epidemiological parameter indicates that the average reproduction number value of COVID-19 in Indonesia is 7.32. The long-term prediction of COVID-19 in Indonesia and its epidemiology can be well described using the SIRD model. The model can be applied in specific regions or cities in understanding the epidemic pattern of COVID-19.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
ProQuest Central
Type of study:
Observational study
Topics:
Long Covid
Language:
English
Journal:
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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