Estimating dates of origin and end of COVID-19 epidemics
Peer Community Journal
; 1(e70), 2021.
Article
in English
| CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1836343
ABSTRACT
Estimating the date at which an epidemic started in a country and the date at which it can end depending on interventions intensity are important to guide public health responses. Both are potentially shaped by similar factors including stochasticity (due to small population sizes), superspreading events, and memory effects (the fact that the occurrence of some events, e.g. recovering from an infection, depend on the past, e.g. the number of days since the infection). Focusing on COVID-19 epidemics, we develop and analyse mathematical models to explore how these three factors may affect early and final epidemic dynamics. Regarding the date of origin, we find limited effects on the mean estimates, but strong effects on their variances. Regarding the date of extinction following lockdown onset, mean values decrease with stochasticity or with the presence of superspreading events. These results underline the importance of accounting for heterogeneity in infection history and transmission patterns to accurately capture early and late epidemic dynamics.
Mathematics and Statistics [ZZ100]; Prion, Viral, Bacterial and Fungal Pathogens of Humans [VV210]; epidemics; estimation; human diseases; mathematical models; public health; coronavirus disease 2019; viral diseases; disease transmission; origin; man; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Homo; Hominidae; primates; mammals; vertebrates; Chordata; animals; eukaryotes; Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirinae; Coronaviridae; Nidovirales; positive-sense ssRNA Viruses; ssRNA Viruses; RNA Viruses; viruses; viral infections; SARS-CoV-2
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
CAB Abstracts
Language:
English
Journal:
Peer Community Journal
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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