Baseline update for international dairy, livestock and biofuel markets: FAPRI-MU report #08-21

ABSTRACT

In 2021 the markets for the commodities in this update have continued to be disrupted by COVID-19. All levels of the markets in many countries have been impacted from the supply of inputs, to processing capability and logistics. African Swine Fever (ASF), particularly in China, has disrupted meat markets. Volatility in these markets in the near term is to be expected and it is important to note that the path these markets take will be more volatile than what is projected here. Furthermore, the numbers presented in this report should not be interpreted as forecasts but as projections. They are estimates of the average values that would prevail under normal weather, current policy and macroeconomic parameters assumed herein. This update was prepared the weeks of August 23 and August 30, 2021 using data available at that time. Current policies are assumed to remain in place. The update uses data for international dairy and livestock from USDA's Production, Supply and Distribution database, with updates from the latest USDA's GAIN reports and other sources. Biofuels data comes primarily from F.O. Licht supplemented by GAIN reports and some country sources. The macroeconomy is assumed to evolve as forecast by IHS Markit in July 2021. Additionally no further assumptions have been made with regards to any other markets impacts associated with COVID-19.