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The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China.
Kraemer, Moritz U G; Yang, Chia-Hung; Gutierrez, Bernardo; Wu, Chieh-Hsi; Klein, Brennan; Pigott, David M; du Plessis, Louis; Faria, Nuno R; Li, Ruoran; Hanage, William P; Brownstein, John S; Layan, Maylis; Vespignani, Alessandro; Tian, Huaiyu; Dye, Christopher; Pybus, Oliver G; Scarpino, Samuel V.
  • Kraemer MUG; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. s.scarpino@northeastern.edu oliver.pybus@zoo.ox.ac.uk moritz.kraemer@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
  • Yang CH; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Gutierrez B; Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Wu CH; Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Klein B; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Pigott DM; School of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Universidad San Francisco de Quito USFQ, Quito, Ecuador.
  • du Plessis L; Network Science Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Faria NR; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Department of Health Metrics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Hanage WP; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Brownstein JS; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • Layan M; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Vespignani A; Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Tian H; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Dye C; Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Pybus OG; Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
  • Scarpino SV; Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.
Science ; 368(6490): 493-497, 2020 05 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-18400
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ABSTRACT
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Travel / Coronavirus Infections Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Science Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Travel / Coronavirus Infections Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Science Year: 2020 Document Type: Article