The effects of the COVID-19 crisis on Romania's main trading relationships in 2020

ABSTRACT

This paper is motivated by the influences that the COVID-19 health crisis had on the economies of the world. The economic crisis that has evolved from the health crisis affected economic life at all levels (global, national, industry, and company levels), including the trading relationships between countries. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the influence of the COVID-19 health crisis on the bilateral trading relationships between Romania and its main trading partners in terms of both exports and imports, for the year 2020. The research method used is multiple regression with exports and imports as dependent variables and the COVID-19 burden (solely the number of COVID-19 cases, solely the number of COVID-19 deaths and both taken together) and GDP in both Romania and the trading partners, as independent variables. The data has been collected from international organizations' statistical databases. The findings of the paper illustrate that both the GDP of Romania and the COVID-19 burden in both Romania and the partner countries influenced the bilateral trading relationships of Romania with its main trading partners in 2020. Romanian imports were more affected than exports by the COVID-19 burden both from Romania and from the trading partners. The number of deaths due to COVID-19 had a higher influence on trade than the number of COVID-19 cases. Based on this country case study, we can assert that global sanitary crises do have an influence on the international trade relationships of countries. Consequently, specific measures need to be taken by policymakers in order to first ensure economic recovery and second to support and maintain international trade flows during times of strong health crises.