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Soybean trade report: trend and risk analysis
Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report - Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University|2020. (801):x + 88 pp. ; 2020.
Article in English | CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-1841780
ABSTRACT
This report presents organized and structured information on soybean trade indicators across geographical space and through time. The indicators considered are exports, imports and prices. These also are presented at the by-product level. The levels of aggregation are global, U.S. and North Dakota. The information of each indicator is presented in the form of trends and descriptive statistics. The former reveals the direction of the growth, while the latter reveals the magnitude of expectations. The descriptive statistics are represented by the mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and share contribution to the total. The report is presented in six sections (I) global temporal soybean trade, (II) global spatial soybean export, (III) global spatial soybean import, (IV) U.S. temporal soybean export, (V) U.S. spatial soybean export and (VI) U.S. state level soybean export. At the global level, the trends of the indicators are presented in addition to the descriptive statistics of the top 15 exporting and importing countries. The trends and descriptive statistics for the top 15 exporting states also are provided at the U.S. level. This report is important because it serves as an informational guide on exports, our competitors for exports and potential markets for soybeans to our producers. In the current environment, the success (productivity and net farm income stability) of agricultural business depends on accurate prediction of potential demand for soybeans and their products to help producers in making decisions for domestic or foreign markets. Hence, having a comprehensive and accurate database on exports and imports at the global, national and state levels will enable producers in decisionmaking with confidence. To formulate trade policies related to the international market, the trends and the descriptive statistics are useful to producers in identifying variations in demand for soybeans and their products. For decision makers, this information is helpful in the development of risk management tools for potential export losses due to risky events such as politically driven tariffs and uncertain events such as COVID-19. Finally, in the years of decline, identifying sources of variation or risk in changing consumer preferences, genetically modified restrictive index, trade facilitation and prosperity indexes is important. The study reveals that Global Trade * The soybean market has shifted to processed products. * Soybean grain, residue and crude oil are primary with an increase in flour. * Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Canada are the major competitors with the U.S. for soybean grains. * China, Japan, Netherlands, Spain and Germany are the major destinations for soybean grain. * Soybean grain prices have been on the decline in recent years. U.S. Trade vii * China, Mexico, Japan, Indonesia and Netherlands are the major destinations for U.S. soybean grains. * Turkey, Russia, Argentina and Italy are among the top 15 importers of soybean grains but not part of the top 15 U.S. export destinations. U.S. State Trade * Our state-level estimates of trade are consistent with U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) exports. In contrast, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) under- and overestimates state exports because they are based on the location of the port. * Our production-adjusted state export estimates suggest the major exporters of soybeans are Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, South Dakota, North Dakota and Kansas. North Dakota Trade * North Dakota soybean exports are underestimated by the USDA FAS. * For instance, the production adjusted export value predicts a value of $885,365,842 in 2018, while the ERS method predicted $887,896,380 for North Dakota. On the other hand, the FAS method presents a value of $62,543,314.
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Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: CAB Abstracts Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report - Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University|2020. (801):x / 88 pp. Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: CAB Abstracts Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report - Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University|2020. (801):x / 88 pp. Year: 2020 Document Type: Article