Third Wave Prediction Analysis for Kerala in India

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 is spreading widely across the globe right now. India just went through the second wave of COVID-19 pandemic and has lost more than 425,000 people to this pandemic till date. Most of the other countries have gone through the second wave, with some countries experiencing third and fourth waves. In such difficult times, there is a shortage of resources everywhere. Planning is the need of the hour, and all the countries are expanding their resources, keeping future demands in mind. Some of the states of India, like Kerala, are also expecting imminent danger of the third wave. In this study, we are predicting the arrival and peak of the third wave in Kerala. We also provide the mathematical models and theoretical background to reach such expected dates. Prediction of this type helps to suggest the preparation needed to tackle the upcoming disaster. Governments can prepare themselves so that there is minimal damage to life in future. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.