Mathematical modelling of COVID-19: A case study of Italy.
Math Comput Simul
; 194: 1-18, 2022 Apr.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1851738
ABSTRACT
This manuscript describes a mathematical epidemiological model of COVID-19 to investigate the dynamics of this pandemic disease and we have fitted this model to the current COVID-19 cases in Italy. We have obtained the basic reproduction number which plays a crucial role on the stability of disease free equilibrium point. Backward bifurcation with respect to the cure rate of treatment occurs conditionally. It is clear from the sensitivity analysis that the developments of self immunities with proper maintaining of social distancing of the exposed and asymptomatic individuals play key role for controlling the disease. We have validated the model by considering the COVID-19 cases of Italy and the future situations of epidemicity in Italy have been predicted from the model. We have estimated the basic reproduction number for the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy and effective reproduction number has also been studied. Finally, an optimal control model has been formulated and solved to realize the positive impacts of adapting lock down by many countries for maintaining social distancing.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Case report
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Math Comput Simul
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.matcom.2021.11.008
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