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Mathematical modelling of COVID-19: A case study of Italy.
Ghosh, Jayanta Kumar; Biswas, Sudhanshu Kumar; Sarkar, Susmita; Ghosh, Uttam.
  • Ghosh JK; Boalia Junior High School, Nadia, West Bengal, India.
  • Biswas SK; Department of Mathematics, Sripat Singh College, West Bengal, India.
  • Sarkar S; Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India.
  • Ghosh U; Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India.
Math Comput Simul ; 194: 1-18, 2022 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1851738
ABSTRACT
This manuscript describes a mathematical epidemiological model of COVID-19 to investigate the dynamics of this pandemic disease and we have fitted this model to the current COVID-19 cases in Italy. We have obtained the basic reproduction number which plays a crucial role on the stability of disease free equilibrium point. Backward bifurcation with respect to the cure rate of treatment occurs conditionally. It is clear from the sensitivity analysis that the developments of self immunities with proper maintaining of social distancing of the exposed and asymptomatic individuals play key role for controlling the disease. We have validated the model by considering the COVID-19 cases of Italy and the future situations of epidemicity in Italy have been predicted from the model. We have estimated the basic reproduction number for the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy and effective reproduction number has also been studied. Finally, an optimal control model has been formulated and solved to realize the positive impacts of adapting lock down by many countries for maintaining social distancing.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Case report / Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Math Comput Simul Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.matcom.2021.11.008

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Case report / Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Math Comput Simul Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.matcom.2021.11.008