A log-odds system for waning and boosting of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness.
Vaccine
; 40(28): 3821-3824, 2022 06 21.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1852215
ABSTRACT
Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination wanes over time in a non-linear fashion, making modelling of likely population impacts of COVID-19 policy options challenging. We observed that it was possible to mathematize non-linear waning of vaccine effectiveness (VE) on the percentage scale as linear waning on the log-odds scale, and developed a random effects logistic regression equation based on UK Health Security Agency data to model VE against Omicron following two and three doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. VE on the odds scale reduced by 47% per month for symptomatic infection after two vaccine doses, lessening to 35% per month for hospitalisation. Waning on the odds scale after triple dose vaccines was 35% per month for symptomatic disease and 19% for hospitalisation. This log-odds system for estimating waning and boosting of COVID-19 VE provides a simple solution that may be used to parametrize SARS-CoV-2 immunity over time parsimoniously in epidemiological models.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19 Vaccines
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Vaccine
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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