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Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a strictly-Orthodox Jewish community in the UK.
Waites, William; Pearson, Carl A B; Gaskell, Katherine M; House, Thomas; Pellis, Lorenzo; Johnson, Marina; Gould, Victoria; Hunt, Adam; Stone, Neil R H; Kasstan, Ben; Chantler, Tracey; Lal, Sham; Roberts, Chrissy H; Goldblatt, David; Marks, Michael; Eggo, Rosalind M.
  • Waites W; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK. william.waites@strath.ac.uk.
  • Pearson CAB; Department of Computer and Information Sciences, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland, UK. william.waites@strath.ac.uk.
  • Gaskell KM; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK.
  • House T; Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK.
  • Pellis L; School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
  • Johnson M; School of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
  • Gould V; Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, UK.
  • Hunt A; Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK.
  • Stone NRH; Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, UK.
  • Kasstan B; Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK.
  • Chantler T; Hospital for Tropical Diseases, University College London Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK.
  • Lal S; Centre for Health, Law and Society, University of Bristol Law School, Bristol, UK.
  • Roberts CH; Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
  • Goldblatt D; Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK.
  • Marks M; Department of Clinical Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK.
  • Eggo RM; Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health Biomedical Research Centre, University College London, London, UK.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 8550, 2022 05 20.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1947441
ABSTRACT
Some social settings such as households and workplaces, have been identified as high risk for SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Identifying and quantifying the importance of these settings is critical for designing interventions. A tightly-knit religious community in the UK experienced a very large COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, reaching 64.3% seroprevalence within 10 months, and we surveyed this community both for serological status and individual-level attendance at particular settings. Using these data, and a network model of people and places represented as a stochastic graph rewriting system, we estimated the relative contribution of transmission in households, schools and religious institutions to the epidemic, and the relative risk of infection in each of these settings. All congregate settings were important for transmission, with some such as primary schools and places of worship having a higher share of transmission than others. We found that the model needed a higher general-community transmission rate for women (3.3-fold), and lower susceptibility to infection in children to recreate the observed serological data. The precise share of transmission in each place was related to assumptions about the internal structure of those places. Identification of key settings of transmission can allow public health interventions to be targeted at these locations.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Child / Female / Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-022-12517-6

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Child / Female / Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-022-12517-6