The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel.
J R Soc Interface
; 19(190): 20220006, 2022 05.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1853312
ABSTRACT
Environmental pathogen surveillance is a sensitive tool that can detect early-stage outbreaks, and it is being used to track poliovirus and other pathogens. However, interpretation of longitudinal environmental surveillance signals is difficult because the relationship between infection incidence and viral load in wastewater depends on time-varying shedding intensity. We developed a mathematical model of time-varying poliovirus shedding intensity consistent with expert opinion across a range of immunization states. Incorporating this shedding model into an infectious disease transmission model, we analysed quantitative, polymerase chain reaction data from seven sites during the 2013 Israeli poliovirus outbreak. Compared to a constant shedding model, our time-varying shedding model estimated a slower peak (four weeks later), with more of the population reached by a vaccination campaign before infection and a lower cumulative incidence. We also estimated the population shed virus for an average of 29 days (95% CI 28-31), longer than expert opinion had suggested for a population that was purported to have received three or more inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) doses. One explanation is that IPV may not substantially affect shedding duration. Using realistic models of time-varying shedding coupled with longitudinal environmental surveillance may improve our understanding of outbreak dynamics of poliovirus, SARS-CoV-2, or other pathogens.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Poliomyelitis
/
Poliovirus
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
/
Infant
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J R Soc Interface
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Rsif.2022.0006
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS