Pandemic Simulator: A tool to simulate quarantine policy in pandemic

ABSTRACT

Epidemic estimation models are commonly based on SIR or SEIR model. SIR and SEIR can explain the past data but it is not easy to provide information about detail effects such as isolation, vaccination and etc. When the prediction can provide the effect of single quarantine policy, government can decide more easily about isolation, mask wearing, vaccination and other quarantine policy. Thus, in this study, microscopic simulation program was developed to apply and understand the effect of single policy. The simulation was performed by changing social distancing factor that widely accepted as a quarantine policy all over the world. This factor showed remarkable impact when they are properly operated. By changing social distancing factor m from 0 to 20 for each 5 steps, (0, 5 10, 15, 20) the final numbers of infection were 77508, 33927, 14942, 6523 and 7937, respectively. The simulator showed the capability to successfully demonstrate the two single policy effect.