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Development and application of a dynamic transmission model of health systems' preparedness and response to COVID-19 in twenty-six Latin American and Caribbean countries.
Santoro, Adrián; López Osornio, Alejandro; Williams, Ivan; Wachs, Martín; Cejas, Cintia; Havela, Maisa; Bardach, Ariel; López, Analía; Augustovski, Federico; Pichón Riviere, Andrés; Rubinstein, Adolfo.
  • Santoro A; Center for Implementation and Innovation in Health Policies, Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • López Osornio A; Center for Implementation and Innovation in Health Policies, Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • Williams I; Faculty of Economics, University of Buenos Aires, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • Wachs M; Center for Implementation and Innovation in Health Policies, Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • Cejas C; Center for Implementation and Innovation in Health Policies, Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • Havela M; Center for Implementation and Innovation in Health Policies, Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • Bardach A; Department of Health Technology Assesments (HTA) and Health Economics, Institute for Clinical Effectivenessand Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • López A; Center for Implementation and Innovation in Health Policies, Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • Augustovski F; Department of Health Technology Assesments (HTA) and Health Economics, Institute for Clinical Effectivenessand Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • Pichón Riviere A; Department of Health Technology Assesments (HTA) and Health Economics, Institute for Clinical Effectivenessand Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • Rubinstein A; Center for Implementation and Innovation in Health Policies, Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy, Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, Argentina.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 2(3): e0000186, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1854945
ABSTRACT
The global impact of COVID-19 has challenged health systems across the world. This situation highlighted the need to develop policies based on scientific evidence to prepare the health systems and mitigate the pandemic. In this scenario, governments were urged to predict the impact of the measures they were implementing, how they related to the population's behavior, and the capacity of health systems to respond to the pandemic. The overarching aim of this research was to develop a customizable and open-source tool to predict the impact of the expansion of COVID-19 on the level of preparedness of the health systems of different Latin American and the Caribbean countries, with two main objectives. Firstly, to estimate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preparedness and response capacity of health systems in those countries, based on different scenarios and public policies implemented to control, mitigate, or suppress the spread of the epidemic. Secondly, to facilitate policy makers' decisions by allowing the model to adjust its parameters according to the specific pandemic trajectory and policy context. How many infections and deaths are estimated per day?; When are the peaks of cases and deaths expected, according to the different scenarios?; Which occupancy rate will ICU services have along the epidemiological curve?; When is the optimal time increase restrictions in order to prevent saturation of ICU beds?, are some of the key questions that the model can respond, and is publicly accessible through the following link http//shinyapps.iecs.org.ar/modelo-covid19/. This open-access and open code tool is based on a SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered). Using a deterministic epidemiological model, it allows to frame potential scenarios for long periods, providing valuable information on the dynamics of transmission and how it could impact on health systems through multiple customized configurations adapted to specific characteristics of each country.

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: PLOS Glob Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pgph.0000186

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: PLOS Glob Public Health Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pgph.0000186