Protective effect of a first SARS-CoV-2 infection from reinfection: a matched retrospective cohort study using PCR testing data in England.

ABSTRACT

The duration of immunity after first severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and the extent to which prior immunity prevents reinfection is uncertain and remains an important question within the context of new variants. This is a retrospective population-based matched observational study where we identified the first polymerase chain reaction (PCR) positive of primary SARS-CoV-2 infection case tests between 1 March 2020 and 30 September 2020. Each case was matched by age, sex, upper tier local authority of residence and testing route to one individual testing negative in the same week (controls) by PCR. After a 90-day pre-follow-up period for cases and controls, any subsequent positive tests up to 31 December 2020 and deaths within 28 days of testing positive were identified, this encompassed an essentially vaccine-free period. We used a conditional logistic regression to analyse the results. There were 517 870 individuals in the matched cohort with 2815 reinfection cases and 12 098 first infections. The protective effect of a prior SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive episode was 78% (odds ratio (OR) 0.22, 0.21-0.23). Protection rose to 82% (OR 0.18, 0.17-0.19) after a sensitivity analysis excluded 933 individuals with a first test between March and May and a subsequent positive test between June and September 2020. Amongst individuals testing positive by PCR during follow-up, reinfection cases had 77% lower odds of symptoms at the second episode (adjusted OR 0.23, 0.20-0.26) and 45% lower odds of dying in the 28 days after reinfection (adjusted OR 0.55, 0.42-0.71). Prior SARS-CoV-2 infection offered protection against reinfection in this population. There was some evidence that reinfections increased with the alpha variant compared to the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 variant highlighting the importance of continued monitoring as new variants emerge.