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Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data.
Zhao, Shi; Cao, Peihua; Gao, Daozhou; Zhuang, Zian; Wang, Weiming; Ran, Jinjun; Wang, Kai; Yang, Lin; Einollahi, Mohammad R; Lou, Yijun; He, Daihai; Wang, Maggie H.
  • Zhao S; JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
  • Cao P; Shenzhen Research Institute of Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China.
  • Gao D; Clinical Research Centre, Zhujiang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
  • Zhuang Z; Department of Mathematics, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai, China.
  • Wang W; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  • Ran J; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huaiyin Normal University, Huaian, China.
  • Wang K; School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
  • Yang L; Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.
  • Einollahi MR; School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  • Lou Y; School of Computer Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
  • He D; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  • Wang MH; Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Infect Dis Model ; 7(2): 189-195, 2022 Jun.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1867204
ABSTRACT
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI 1.7-7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Infect Dis Model Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.idm.2022.05.005

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Infect Dis Model Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.idm.2022.05.005