Close contact behavior-based COVID-19 transmission and interventions in a subway system.

ABSTRACT

During COVID-19 pandemic, analysis on virus exposure and intervention efficiency in public transports based on real passenger's close contact behaviors is critical to curb infectious disease transmission. A monitoring device was developed to gather a total of 145,821 close contact data in subways based on semi-supervision learning. A virus transmission model considering both short- and long-range inhalation and deposition was established to calculate the virus exposure. During rush-hour, short-range inhalation exposure is 3.2 times higher than deposition exposure and 7.5 times higher than long-range inhalation exposure of all passengers in the subway. The close contact rate was 56.1 % and the average interpersonal distance was 0.8 m. Face-to-back was the main pattern during close contact. Comparing with random distribution, if all passengers stand facing in the same direction, personal virus exposure through inhalation (deposition) can be reduced by 74.1 % (98.5 %). If the talk rate was decreased from 20 % to 5 %, the inhalation (deposition) exposure can be reduced by 69.3 % (73.8 %). In addition, we found that virus exposure could be reduced by 82.0 % if all passengers wear surgical masks. This study provides scientific support for COVID-19 prevention and control in subways based on real human close contact behaviors.