Disaggregating disparities: A case study of heterogenous COVID-19 disparities across waves, geographies, social vulnerability, and political lean in Louisiana.

ABSTRACT

While the first wave of COVID-19 primarily impacted urban areas, subsequent waves were more widespread. Most analysis of Covid-19 rates examine state or metropolitan areas, ignoring potential heterogeneity within states and metro areas, over time, and between populations with differing contextual and compositional features. In this study, we compare spatial and temporal trends in Covid-19 cases and deaths in Louisiana, USA, over time and across populations and geographies (New Orleans, other urban areas, suburban, rural) and parish-level political lean. We employ publicly available longitudinal census tract and parish-level Covid-19 data reported from February 27th, 2020 to October 27th, 2021. We find that incidence and mortality rates were initially highest in New Orleans and Democratic areas and higher in other geographies and more conservative areas during subsequent waves. We also find wide relative disparities during the first wave, where increased social vulnerability was associated with increased positivity and incidence across geographies and political contexts. However, relative disparities diverged by geography and political lean and outcome across the remaining waves. This work draws attention to the differential rates of Covid-19 cases and deaths by geography, time, and population throughout the pandemic, and importance of political and geographic boundaries for rates of Covid-19.