Application of Optimal Stopping Theory to Pandemic Lockdown Policies
2022 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Applications, DASA 2022
; : 779-783, 2022.
Article
in English
| Scopus | ID: covidwho-1874169
ABSTRACT
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments are facing challenges in determining the optimal time to exit the lockdown in their countries. A trade-off between health-related aspects and economic aspects should be achieved.This paper uses a discrete-time Markov Chain (DTMC) SIS model to find the optimal time to stop the lockdown. Two models are proposed Model 1 assumes that the reproduction number R is constant over time, while Model 2 considers that R is time-dependent. The analysis of Model 1 leads to simple optimal policies. © 2022 IEEE.
economic costs; health-related costs; markov decision process; Optimal stopping theory; SIS model; Cell proliferation; Costs; Decision theory; Economic and social effects; Locks (fasteners); Discrete time Markov chains; Economic aspects; Government IS; Health-related cost; Markov Decision Processes; Optimal stopping theories; Optimal time; Trade off; Markov processes
Full text:
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Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
Scopus
Language:
English
Journal:
2022 International Conference on Decision Aid Sciences and Applications, DASA 2022
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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