A Robust Deep Learning Model for Predicting the Trend of Stock Market Prices During Market Crash Periods

ABSTRACT

The stock market is one of the most important investment opportunities for small and large investors. Stock market fluctuations provide opportunities and risks for investors. However, some fluctuations are considered as enormous threats for most investors;significantly when the stock market has fallen sharply due to external factors and does not reach its previous point in a long time. For example, at the beginning of 2020, financial market indices, especially the stock market, fell sharply due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and for a long time, the indices did not grow significantly. Many investors suffered huge losses during this period. Although much research has been done in stock market forecasting and very efficient models have been proposed so far, no special effort has been made to build a model resistant to the collapse of financial markets. We propose a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based ensemble model that is highly resilient to the stock market crash, especially at the beginning of the COVID-19 period. The proposed model not only avoids losing money in financial crises but can bring significant returns to investors. Experimental results show that the ensemble CNN models using Gramian Angular Fields (GAF) has greatly improved the resistance of the model in critical market conditions. © 2022 IEEE.