Dynamics Modeling and Analysis of COVID-19

ABSTRACT

To study the spreading mechanism and risk and predict the spreading trend of COVID-19, and provide supports for the government to formulate prevention and control policies, a new nonlinear dynamic model, i.e., the susceptible-low risk-exposed-infectious-removed (SLEIR) model is proposed, and the population with protection measures is regarded as a low-risk group and included into this model. The basic reproduction number, equilibrium, stability and bifurcation are analyzed to reveal the spreading mechanism, and the data on COVID-19 in India is used for least-squares fitting of model parameters and some initial values. The fitted parameters are used to predict the spreading trend in India. Predicting results show that the average relative errors of the epidemic prediction are 4.107% and 2.805% from March to April and from April to May, respectively. For the latest epidemic prediction of India in October, the average relative error is 3.266%. These simulations indicate that the proposed model can accurately predict COVID-19 spreading in India, is more suitable for analyzing its spreading in India with higher prediction accuracy compared with the traditional SEIR model, and can provide technical support for the government of India to select prevention and control measures. © 2022, Editorial Office of Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University. All right reserved.