KISSing in the Time of COVID-19: Some Lessons for Model Choice
Argumenta
; 7(1):39-55, 2021.
Article
in English
| Scopus | ID: covidwho-1876212
ABSTRACT
I present and analyze the case of COVID-19 modeling at the Public Health Agency of Sweden (FoHM) between February 2020 and May 2021. The analysis casts the case as a decision problem:
modelers choose from a strategically prepared menu that model which they have reasons to believe will best serve their current purpose. Specifically, I argue that the model choice at FoHM concerned a trade-off between model-target similarity and model simplicity. Five reasons for choosing to engage in such a trade-off are discussed lack of information, avoiding overfitting, avoiding fuzzy modularity, maintaining good communication, and facilitating error avoidance and detection. I conclude that the case illustrates that model simplicity is an epistemically important principle. © 2021 University of Sassari
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
Scopus
Language:
English
Journal:
Argumenta
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
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