Evaluating effectiveness of public health intervention strategies for mitigating COVID-19 pandemic.
Stat Med
; 41(19): 3820-3836, 2022 08 30.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1877683
ABSTRACT
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global public health challenge. In the United States (US), state governments have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distance closure (lockdown), stay-at-home order, mandatory facial mask in public in response to the rapid spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the effectiveness of these NPIs, we propose a nested case-control design with propensity score weighting under the quasi-experiment framework to estimate the average intervention effect on disease transmission across states. We further develop a method to test for factors that moderate intervention effect to assist precision public health intervention. Our method takes account of the underlying dynamics of disease transmission and balance state-level pre-intervention characteristics. We prove that our estimator provides causal intervention effect under assumptions. We apply this method to analyze US COVID-19 incidence cases to estimate the effects of six interventions. We show that lockdown has the largest effect on reducing transmission and reopening bars significantly increase transmission. States with a higher percentage of non-White population are at greater risk of increased R t $$ {R}_t $$ associated with reopening bars.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Stat Med
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Sim.9482
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS