The phase dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of 213 Countries and Territories.

ABSTRACT

The study was carried out to evaluate the dynamics of monthly numbers of cases, deaths, tests and case fatality ratio worldwide during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Material and methods: Twenty-three sets of databases, dated the 22nd of each month from January 2020 to November 2021, for 213 countries were collected from the Worldometer website. The number of cases, deaths, tests, case fatality ratio, infection fatality ratio, etc. were counted for various periods of time for each of the 213 countries, then the results related to different periods of time were compared. The analysis of main epidemiological parameters resulted in division of three phases of the global pandemic evolution. The first phase (23.01.20-22.07.20), the second phase (23.07.20-22.01.21) and the third phase (23.01.21-22.07.21) were different in terms of the number of tests performed, new cases and mortality due to COVID-19. By the end of second phase, the worldwide statistics indicated imminent end of the pandemic, but the third phase was characterized by sudden rise in the number of new cases and deaths that could not be explained rationally. The most dramatic evolution of epidemic curve occurred in the countries where physicians had successfully confronted COVID-19 during the first two phases of the pandemic. Despite the decrease in the overall numbers deaths during the latest months analyzed, additional study is necessary to identify the cause of increasing in the number of new cases and deaths during the third phase of the pandemic. Presumably, there are several causes of negative evolution of the current pandemic, including over-reliance on polymerase chain reaction tests, application of non-specialized premises for quarantine and treatment, non-professional management, following therapeutic protocols applied in countries with high number of deaths, ignoring preventive treatment, and decreasing in mass and individual immunity. It can be suggested that the use of drugs modulating T-cell immunity is necessary, and preventive and therapeutic protocols should be changed from the 'standard' to 'personalized' types.