Quantifying the probability of a recession in selected Central and Eastern European countries
Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja
; : 21, 2022.
Article
in English
| English Web of Science | ID: covidwho-1882856
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic simultaneously affected most economic sectors and has already caused severe worldwide social and economic damage. In response, authorities introduced social distancing measures, with an adverse impact on economic activity. If policymakers were aware of the existing vulnerabilities, including those derived from the positioning on the business cycle, resilience could have been increased. The aim of this article is to describe various methods of dating business cycles in several Central and Eastern European (C.E.E.) countries, namely Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Romania. Furthermore, a Probit model regarding the probability of a recession is estimated, confirming the adverse effects of the pandemic, in contrast with a brightening outlook given vaccination campaigns and the E.U. recovery package. However, in case of the Romanian economy, an in-sample estimation showed a high probability of negative growth rates even in a pre-pandemic world, due to the high macroeconomic imbalances.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
English Web of Science
Language:
English
Journal:
Economic Research-Ekonomska Istrazivanja
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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