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A memory effect model to predict COVID-19: analysis and simulation.
Ali, Aatif; Hamou, Abdelouahed Alla; Islam, Saeed; Muhammad, Taseer; Khan, Alamzeb.
  • Ali A; Department of Mathematics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
  • Hamou AA; Laboratory of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, Faculty of Sciences Dhar Al Mahraz, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University, Fez, Morocco.
  • Islam S; Department of Mathematics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
  • Muhammad T; Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences, King Khalid University, Abha, Saudi Arabia.
  • Khan A; Department of Pediatrics, Yale School of Medicine Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Comput Methods Biomech Biomed Engin ; : 1-17, 2022 Jun 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2248989
ABSTRACT
On 19 September 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that asymptomatic individuals, those who have close contact with infected person, be tested. Also, American society for biological clinical comments on testing of asymptomatic individuals. So, we proposed a new mathematical model for evaluating the population-level impact of contact rates (social-distancing) and the rate at which asymptomatic people are hospitalized (isolated) following testing due to close contact with documented infected people. The model is a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations that is fitted and parameterized by least square curve fitting using COVID-19 pandemic data of Pakistan from 1 October 2020 to 30 April 2021. The fractional derivative is used to understand the biological process with crossover behavior and memory effect. The reproduction number and conditions for asymptotic stability are derived diligently. The most common non-integer Caputo derivative is used for deeper analysis and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 infection. The fractional-order Adams-Bashforth method is used for the solution of the model. In light of the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in terms of social distancing and isolation are being investigated. The reduction in the baseline value of contact rates and enhancement in hospitalization rate of symptomatic can lead the elimination of the pandemic.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Comput Methods Biomech Biomed Engin Journal subject: Biomedical Engineering / Physiology Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 10255842.2022.2081503

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Comput Methods Biomech Biomed Engin Journal subject: Biomedical Engineering / Physiology Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: 10255842.2022.2081503