Infectious Disease Dynamics Model Considering Suspected Population

ABSTRACT

The outbreak of COVID-19 calls for the improvement of infectious disease dynamics model to meet the requirements of future infectious disease's prediction and risk assessment. On the basis of SEIR model, a new transmission dynamics model named as SSEIR is proposed. In order to describe the dynamics evolution of the SSEIR model, a new set of ordinary differential equations (ODE) is constructed. The SSEIR dynamics model is used to simulate and predict the progress of pandemic situation inWuhan, China. Because that the suspected people have different dynamics characteristics from the susceptible people and the exposed people, this paper put them in a new independent category. To describe the dynamics evolution of SSEIR model, a new set of ordinary differential equations (ODE) is constructed. The SSEIR model can be used to simulate and predict the progress of infectious diseases.