The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19.
Ann Tour Res
; 94: 103402, 2022 May.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1889199
ABSTRACT
This paper proposes a new foresight approach to estimate the impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand. The forecasting-based influence evaluation consists of four modules decomposing hotel demand before an emergency, matching each decomposed component to a forecasting model, combining the predictions as the expected demand after the emergency, and estimating the impact by comparing actual demand against that predicted. The method is applied to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Macao's hotel industry. The empirical results show that 1) the new approach accurately estimates COVID-19's impact on hotel demand; 2) the seasonal and industry development components contribute significantly to the estimate of expected demand; 3) COVID-19's impact is heterogeneous across hotel services.
Full text:
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Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Ann Tour Res
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.annals.2022.103402
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