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The impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand - Estimation from a new foresight perspective on the COVID-19.
He, Ling-Yang; Li, Hui; Bi, Jian-Wu; Yang, Jing-Jing; Zhou, Qing.
  • He LY; College of Tourism and Service Management, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China.
  • Li H; College of Tourism and Service Management, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China.
  • Bi JW; College of Tourism and Service Management, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China.
  • Yang JJ; Macao Institute for Tourism Studies, Colina de Mong-Há, Macau 999078, China.
  • Zhou Q; School of Management, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China.
Ann Tour Res ; 94: 103402, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1889199
ABSTRACT
This paper proposes a new foresight approach to estimate the impact of public health emergencies on hotel demand. The forecasting-based influence evaluation consists of four modules decomposing hotel demand before an emergency, matching each decomposed component to a forecasting model, combining the predictions as the expected demand after the emergency, and estimating the impact by comparing actual demand against that predicted. The method is applied to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Macao's hotel industry. The empirical results show that 1) the new approach accurately estimates COVID-19's impact on hotel demand; 2) the seasonal and industry development components contribute significantly to the estimate of expected demand; 3) COVID-19's impact is heterogeneous across hotel services.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Ann Tour Res Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.annals.2022.103402

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies / Prognostic study Language: English Journal: Ann Tour Res Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.annals.2022.103402