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Risk-benefit analysis of emergency vaccine use.
Lewis, Gregory; Bonsall, Michael.
  • Lewis G; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK. gregory.lewis@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
  • Bonsall M; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 7444, 2022 05 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1890254
ABSTRACT
Emergency vaccine use requires weighing a large number of uncertain risks and possible benefits. In the COVID-19 pandemic, decisions about what evidence is necessary to authorize emergency use have proven controversial, and vary between countries. We construct a simple mathematical model of the risks and benefits of emergency vaccination to an individual, and apply this to the hypothetical scenario of individual decision-making between emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine without safety and efficacy data, versus waiting for efficacy and safety to be established. Even with conservative modelling assumptions and uncertainty distributions for vaccine efficacy (mean expectation = 17%) and serious adverse event risk (mean expectation = 0.3%), high risk individuals (e.g. those who are elderly and have a household contact with COVID-19) are better off using the 'emergency vaccine' rather than waiting for more information (absolute risk reduction for mortality up to 2%). Very early emergency authorization of vaccines despite very limited data may be the better public health strategy when confronted with a dangerous emerging infectious disease.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Drug Approval / COVID-19 Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-022-11374-7

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Drug Approval / COVID-19 Vaccines / COVID-19 Type of study: Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-022-11374-7