Risk-benefit analysis of emergency vaccine use.
Sci Rep
; 12(1): 7444, 2022 05 06.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1890254
ABSTRACT
Emergency vaccine use requires weighing a large number of uncertain risks and possible benefits. In the COVID-19 pandemic, decisions about what evidence is necessary to authorize emergency use have proven controversial, and vary between countries. We construct a simple mathematical model of the risks and benefits of emergency vaccination to an individual, and apply this to the hypothetical scenario of individual decision-making between emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine without safety and efficacy data, versus waiting for efficacy and safety to be established. Even with conservative modelling assumptions and uncertainty distributions for vaccine efficacy (mean expectation = 17%) and serious adverse event risk (mean expectation = 0.3%), high risk individuals (e.g. those who are elderly and have a household contact with COVID-19) are better off using the 'emergency vaccine' rather than waiting for more information (absolute risk reduction for mortality up to 2%). Very early emergency authorization of vaccines despite very limited data may be the better public health strategy when confronted with a dangerous emerging infectious disease.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Drug Approval
/
COVID-19 Vaccines
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-022-11374-7
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