Wicked multi-problems (COVID-19+Oil Spill plus wildFires) in Brazil and their effects on socioeconomic vulnerability

ABSTRACT

Purpose - This research aims to identify Brazil's socioeconomic vulnerability to wicked multi-problems arising from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (2019-2020), from the most extensive (similar to 3,000 km) oil spill in tropical oceans (2019/2020) and from the highest rate of wildfires in the last decade. Design/methodology/approach - To this end, the authors measured the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of the 27 Brazilian states to these multi-problems (COVID-19 + Oil Spill + wildFire), considering the effects of these events individually and together. In addition, the authors calculated the vulnerability indices using two variables production value and number of jobs created by an economic activity. Findings - Results show the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro as the most susceptible, with a potential loss of 74.2% in production value and 47% in active employment relationships, caused by these overlapping events in time. The results also demonstrate that the country has failed in the coordination and management of these events (separately and jointly), showing difficulties especially in the stages of immediate response and recovery. Originality/value - Regarding its contributions, this paper innovates by establishing an unprecedented overlap of wicked problems, linking this concept to the analysis of socioeconomic vulnerability of the affected communities, through a model that applies to other regions worldwide.