Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Fitting and prediction of China's output gap: An empirical study on ARMA model
2021 International Conference on Statistics, Applied Mathematics, and Computing Science, CSAMCS 2021 ; 12163, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-1901896
ABSTRACT
Output gap is an important index to analyze the macroeconomic operation situation. In the macroeconomic policy framework, the formulation of many policies depends on evaluating the output gap. According to the impact of COVID-19 on China's economic growth in 2020, this paper aims to explore the future change law of China's output gap. Firstly, China's real GDP growth rate data is calculated according to the original GDP data. Secondly, the potential output and output gap are estimated by H-P filtering method. Finally, the output gap series is brought into the ARMA model for fitting and prediction. To sum up, under the influence of COVID-19, China's actual economic growth level was significantly lower than the potential economic growth in 2020, forming a higher negative output gap. The epidemic's impact on China's actual economic growth will last for four years, and China's output gap will return to a stable state slightly less than zero in 2025. © COPYRIGHT SPIE.
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Scopus Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: 2021 International Conference on Statistics, Applied Mathematics, and Computing Science, CSAMCS 2021 Year: 2022 Document Type: Article

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Scopus Type of study: Prognostic study Language: English Journal: 2021 International Conference on Statistics, Applied Mathematics, and Computing Science, CSAMCS 2021 Year: 2022 Document Type: Article