Analysis and prediction of the Coronavirus epidemic in Tokyo Japan

ABSTRACT

The new crown epidemic is raging around the world, especially in Tokyo, Japan. After the Olympics, the situation of the new crown epidemic is not optimistic. At the same time, due to the emergence of more unstable factors, the number of newly confirmed and death cases is becoming more and more difficult to predict, which poses great challenges to the prevention and control of the epidemic. An effective forecasting method is urgently needed. In order to deal with the unpredictable Tokyo coronavirus epidemic, this article analyzes the existing coronavirus confirmed and death data and predicts the future trend of the coronavirus epidemic. This article first uses the ARIMA-GARCH model to make predictions, and obtains more accurate prediction results. Furthermore, this article uses the SIR model for fitting and prediction, and finally provides guidance on Tokyo's future anti-epidemic policy. © COPYRIGHT SPIE.