Clinical analysis of risk factors for severe patients with novel coronavirus pneumonia / 中华传染病杂志

ABSTRACT

Objective To analyze the clinical features of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Shanghai and to investigate the risk factors for disease progression to severe cases. Methods The clinical data of 292 adult patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center from January 20, 2020 to February 10, 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, including 21 severe patients and 271 mild patients. The demographic characteristics, epidemiological history, history of underlying diseases and laboratory examinations were compared between the two groups. Measurement data were compared using t test or Mann-Whitney U test. The count data were compared using hi-square test. The binary logistic regression equation was used to analyze the risk factors for the progression of patients to severe cases. Results Among the 292 patients, 21 were severe cases with the rate of 7.2% (21/292). One patient died, and the mortality rate was 4.8% in severe patients. The severe patients aged (65.0±15.7) years old, 19 (90.5%) were male, 11 (52.4%) had underlying diseases, 7 (33.3%) had close relatives diagnosed with COVID-19. The mild patients aged (48.7±15.7) years old, 135 (49.8%) were male, 74 (27.3%) had underlying diseases, 36 (13.3%) had close relatives diagnosed with COVID-19. The differences between two groups were all significant statistically ( t =-4.730, χ 2 =12.930, 5.938 and 4.744, respectively, all P <0.05). Compared with the mild patients, the levels of absolute numbers of neutrophils, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase, creatinine, serum cystatin C, C reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin , D -dimer, pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (proBNP), serum myoglobin, creatine kinase (CK), creatine kinase isoenzyme (CK-MB), serum troponin I (cTnI) in severe patients were all significantly higher ( U =2 091.5, 1 928.0, 1 215.5, 729.0, 1 580.5, 1 375.5, 917.5, 789.5, 1 209.0, 1 434.0, 638.0, 964.5, 1 258.0 and 1 747.5, respectively, all P <0.05), while the levels of lymphocyte count, albumin, transferrin, CD3 + T lymphocyte count, CD8 + T lymphocyte count and CD4 + T lymphocyte count in severe patients were all significantly lower ( U =1 263.5, t =4.716, U =1 214.0, 962.0, 1 167.5 and 988.0, respectively, all P <0.05). Further logistic regression analysis showed that the albumin (odds ratio ( OR )=0.806, 95% CI 0.675-0.961), CRP ( OR =1.016, 95% CI 1.000-1.032), serum myoglobin ( OR =1.010, 95% CI 1.004-1.016), CD3 + T lymphocyte count ( OR =0.996, 95% CI 0.991-1.000) and CD8 + T lymphocyte count ( OR =1.006, 95% CI 1.001-1.010) at admission were independent risk factors for the progression of COVID-19 patients to severe illness (all P <0.05). Conclusions Severe cases of patients with COVID-19 in Shanghai are predominantly elderly men with underlying diseases. Albumin, CRP, serum myoglobin, CD3 + T lymphocyte count and CD8 + T lymphocyte count could be used as early warning indicators for severe cases, which deserve more clinical attention.