Oil Price Dynamics: Economic Linkages, Price Wars and Forecasting Models During COVID-19

ABSTRACT

Studies have shown that the accuracy of univariate models tends to perform better than linear regression models, yet the latter is relevant for knowing the relation of each variable to crude oil prices. [...]Russia and nine other countries had joined forces with the 13-member OPEC in 2016. Eight macroeconomic explanatory variables were chosen production, consumption, net import, ending stock, utilization rate of refineries, interest rates (U.S.), an oil futures contract from NYMEX and the S&P 500 index. [...]its revenues are highly dependent on oil exports, which constitutes 44% of the national budget.