Rare and extreme events: the case of COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT

Complex systems have characteristics that give rise to the emergence of rare and extreme events. This paper addresses an example of such type of crisis, namely the spread of the new Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The study deals with the statistical comparison and visualization of country-based real-data for the period December 31, 2019, up to April 12, 2020, and does not intend to address the medical treatment of the disease. Two distinct approaches are considered, the description of the number of infected people across time by means of heuristic models fitting the real-world data, and the comparison of countries based on hierarchical clustering and multidimensional scaling. The computational and mathematical modeling lead to the emergence of patterns, highlighting similarities and differences between the countries, pointing toward the main characteristics of the complex dynamics.