Does the "Delta Variant" affect the nonlinear dynamic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission?

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we analyzed the difference of nonlinear dynamic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission caused by 'Delta Variant'. We selected the daily new diagnostic data of SARS-CoV-2 from 15 countries. Four different kinds of complexity metrics such as Kolmogorov complexity, Higuchi's Hurst exponent, Shannon entropy, and multifractal degrees were selected to explore the features of information content, persistence, randomness, multifractal complexity. Afterwards, Student's t-tests were performed to assess the presence of differences of these nonlinear dynamic characteristics for periods before and after "Delta Variant" appearance. The results of two-tailed Student's t-test showed that for all the nonlinear dynamic characteristics, the null hypothesis of equality of mean values were strongly rejected for the two periods. In addition, by one-tailed Student's t-test, we concluded that time series in "Delta period" exhibit higher value of Kolmogorov complexity and Shannon entropy, indicating a higher level of information content and randomness. On the other hand, the Higuchi's Hurst exponent in "Delta period" was lower, which showed the weaker persistent in this period. Moreover, the multifractal specturm width after "Delta" emergence were reduced, representing a more stable multifractality. The sources for the formation of multifractal features are also investigated.